Those of us in Northern Virginia will have a 40% chance of rain tomorrow (Tuesday, 4/13/10) afternoon. The temperature expected will be in 50's. It will take about 7-9 hours for Phomopsis to have an moderate level of infection. Black rot will take about 12-24 hours to infect at that temperature range, so, if it rains and persists, there is a chance for Phomopsis infection.
Winchester area received precipitations from thunderstorms yesterday. It started around 3:30PM and lasted until 7:00PM. The actual amount of precipitation was not high (0.05 in) compared with other northern VA regions where a severe thunderstorm warning was issued, but since the ending part of the thunderstorm hit during the evening, the relative humidity was high (>90%) until 2 AM or so. Thus, it accounted for 11.5 hours of wetness with the average temperature of 73F. It was warm and long enough for Phomopsis, black rot, and downy mildew. We are still having chances of rain (40-60%) until Monday.
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